Comet Elenin coming -anyone hear about it?

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by professor, Sep 15, 2011.

  1. professor

    professor Active Member

    Much mixed info on it.
    NASA says it is just a little ice-ball and nothing to think about.
    However, that agency shut off it's section of the skyscape at the end of last month (I read). WHY?

    The military has ordered Obama to the underground bunker (built for the protection of the elete) under the Denver airport on the 26th of this month.
    The day before Elenin begins passing between the earth and the sun- WHY?

    The report about Obama came from a Russian news source who reported it because of the SALT treaty requirement of mutual notification when big shots do military preparedness.

    Interesting too that the comet comes into our zone on Rosh Hashana.
    The Jewish New Year.
    Interesting too is that the enemies of tiny Israel want to divide it for themselves this month.

    It has been noted that large earthquakes have occured on alignments between Elenin and other planets and earth on particular dates.

    I read an alignment was coming up yesterday, so I would give this thing more weight if there was quakes then. Three 6 point shakers came last night.
    It has my attention.

    What to do? Not much beyond xtra food and water, maybe some fuel for a generator and full gas tanks in the cars?
    Speculation runs from nothing to 3 days of darkness as the comet is between us and the sun.

    I had no idea stuff so far away - like solar flares from the sun affects earth.
    All new info for me.
     

  2. loquin

    loquin Active Member

    The closest it's going to get is about 21 million miles, (.23 AU, or nearly 100 times the distance from the earth to the moon) in mid-October. As far as comets go, it's small, very dim, and pretty much a bust. And, I mean this literally; in fact, it appears to be breaking up.

    Earthquakes? Nope. There is NO correlation between comet flybys and earthquakes.

    This comet is tiny (2-3 miles across) and isn't coming close to the earth. It has as close to zero effect as anything can have. (Except when it gets farther away...)

    It is within view of many thousands of amateur astronomers, (let alone the professionals) who have access the computer programs that are used to calculate orbits. It's hard to get a few people to keep a secret - let along hundreds of governments, and thousands of astronomers who have the minimal equipment and skills needed to know the truth. We KNOW that there is no danger from this oversize, dirty snowball.

    IF there were to be effects from comets that pass within 22 million miles of the earth, we would have had difficulties caused to a similarly sized comet (with a tail nearly three times as large as Elenin) earlier this year, that passed the earth at a distance of about 10 million miles. (half the distance of Elenin.) Nothing happened then, and nothing is going to happen when Elenin passes by.

    If you need something to worry about, on Friday, April 13, 2029, a small (apx. 880 ft in diameter) near earth asteroid named Apophis will pass the earth inside the orbit of geosynchronous satellites. The odds of it hitting the earth on this pass are truly microscopic, however, there is currently about a 1 in 250,000 chance that it will pass by the earth within a half-mile wide spot called a 'keyhole' that could affect its orbit so that it could hit the earth on April 13, 2036. With odds this small, there's really no point of worrying about Apophis, either. It's gravitational effect won't be noticeable, either.


    Solar flares are a different matter. They periodically get spewed out in our direction, causing the aurora, and on occasion, if they are very large, power outages.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2011
  3. happycheapskate

    happycheapskate Active Member

    I'm not worried about it if it's a comet. ha. I think the doomsayers always need new disasters to worry about to stay in business. And that "tiny little country" gets $3+ billion a year from America. They are nothing special, other than their special talent for milking western countries. I'm sure the "world leaders" would like an opportunity to act officious and play a few rounds of golf in a giant bunker though.
     
  4. professor

    professor Active Member

  5. happycheapskate

    happycheapskate Active Member

    NASA and all these other governments have telescopes and things that can see Jupiter and all these far away planets, but can't tell us what this thing is? I don't buy it.
     
  6. loquin

    loquin Active Member

    Guys, they know it's a comet. A tiny comet, and one that's breaking up. In fact, many scientists don't think it will survive it's trip around (and near approach to) the sun. That's really the only thing that they're guessing about... will it evaporate or not?

    It's not the government that's reporting it - it's lots of astronomers, all around the world. Backyard telescopes in the southern hemisphere (because it's only visible in the southern hemisphere right now) are big enough to view it, and to get accurate fixes on its position. Desktop PCs using open source software are being used to calculate its trajectory.

    The governments are tracking it too, but their statements that it's nothing to worry about are just repetitions of what all the scientists who are monitoring it are reporting. It's a tiny comet that never gets closer than about 20 million miles to the earth. And one that probably won't even make it around the sun without evaporating away to nothing.

    The folks who are reporting that it's a brown dwarf star, or a planet, or a tiny black hole, or a giant flying toaster, are fear-mongers who want to alarm the world for their own reasons. Maybe another "end-of-the-world" crackpot who's trying to fob their delusions off on us.

    The great thing about science is that ANYONE can do their own calculations about the effect that Elenin will have on the tides, and on earth as a whole.

    The effect on the earth is proportional to the mass of the object, divided by (distance*distance). So, if Elenin was the same size as the moon, since it will be, at its closest, 90 times farther away than the moon, it's effect would be 1/8100 that of the moon.

    BUT... Elenin is only about 2 miles in diameter, whereas the moon is about 1900 miles in diameter. The mass is proportional to the volume, and the volume of a sphere is 4/3 pi * r * r * r . The moon has about 857 million times the volume of Elenin, so divide 1/8100 by 857 million. Finally, since a comet is mostly ice, and the moon is mostly rock, you could divide by two (at a minimum) the effect.

    So, for back-of-the-envelope calculations, the moon has about 212,000 times the effect on the earth than Elenin will have at it's closest..

    One scientist went to the trouble to calculate that a sub-compact car will have more effect on earth's tides than Elenin will have...

    Worrying about Elenin is like worrying about the effect that your car hitting a butterfly at sixty miles per hour has on your arrival time...
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2011
  7. machiasmort

    machiasmort Active Member

    Great insight and comparison Lou!

    Sun spots/ solar flares are a very serious and real threat. There were some good discussions about the topic when I first joined MBC. Some of our earlier members were very well versed as to what to expect!

    Even our bikes would be effected because of the ignition modules. You'd have to build a Faraday Cage to keep your electronics safe! You could use two thick wraps of tinfoil around your stuff and ground that to a water pipe if there is advanced warnning. The trick is to keep the object off of the tin foil (put it in a box first)!!!!
     
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