Gas prices REALLY going UP and UP.

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Zev0, Jul 4, 2008.

  1. Zev0

    Zev0 Member

    It may be the mother of all doom and gloom gas price predictions: $12 for a gallon of gas is "inevitable."

    Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, gave a dire warning about the potential future of gas prices on CNBC's May 20 "Squawk Box". He told host Becky Quick there was no single thing that would solve the problem, due to the enormity of the problem.

    "The prices that we're paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be 'the good old days,' because others who watch this very closely forecast that we're going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon," Hirsch said. "And then, after that, when oil - world oil production goes into decline, we're going to talk about rationing. In other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable economic problems, but in addition to that, we're not going to be able to get the fuel when we want it."

    Hirsch told the Business & Media Institute the $12-$15 a gallon wasn't his prediction, but that he was citing Charles T. Maxwell, described as the "Dean of Oil Analysts" and the senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. Still, Hirsch admitted the high price was inevitable in his view.

    "I don't attempt to predict oil prices because it's been impossible in the past," Hirsch said in an e-mail. "We're into a new era now, and over the next roughly five years the trend will be up significantly. However, there may be dips and bumps that no one can forecast; I wouldn't be at all surprised. To me the multi-year upswing is inevitable."

    Maxwell's original $12-15-a-gallon prediction came in a February 5 interview with Energytechstocks.com, a Web site run by two former Wall Street Journal staffers.

    "[Maxwell] expects an oil-induced financial crisis to start somewhere in the 2010 to 2015 timeframe," Energytechstocks.com reported. "He said that, unlike the recession the U.S. appears to be in today, 'This will not be six months of **** and then we come out f it.' Rather, Maxwell expects this financial crisis to last at least 10 or 12 years, as the world goes through a prolonged period of price-induced rationing (eg, oil up to $300 a barrel and U.S. pump prices up to $15 a gallon)."
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2015

  2. Alaskavan

    Alaskavan Guest

    Oil reserves are finite. Population grows and per capita use of petroleum products grows. The outcome is inevitable. Sorry, I'm not an optimist.
     
  3. stude13

    stude13 Active Member

    i still think they are wizzing on our feet and implying its raining. with the proven reserves of n.america and coming new discoveries and techniques. i think my grandchild will have a combustion engine as a possible but not a probable choice.
     
  4. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    New discoveries? Possible, but not likely, in any large field way.
     
  5. astring

    astring Member

    I hate to admit it but i am starting to lean toward a peak oil mentality. Over all that is good though, oil is dirty, it is best to be rid of it.
     
  6. kaploink

    kaploink Member

    While oil supplies are finite, the increases we are seeing in oil is due to speculation and investments by those who want to guard against the falling dollar. Refugees from the real estate market and other investors are rushing to capitalize on the daily oil price increases. All of which will only lead to more price increases. The increased unrest in the middle east and the continued war hawk rhetoric from certain members of the U.S. government and Israel only adds to the speculation of future supply disruptions and potential profits for investors. While I don't mean to bring politics into this, it does impact the view of investors.

    I really think what we are seeing is an oil bubble. The prices are being driven up to a point where they no longer reflect the actual value of the commodity. Much like the tulip bulb market in the 1630s, a crash will eventually happen. The ever increasing prices are simply not sustainable. Eventually, you will see people switching to alternative energy(already happening), more efficient cars(now seeing this), and declining economies of those countries that don't adapt. All of which will decrease demand to a point where the inflated prices are longer sustainable.

    I know there is a popular argument that demand from countries like China are driving up the prices and will help sustain the increases in price. Which may be in part true, but consider what happens when gas prices increase and demand for their exports fall as other countries have less income to spend on non energy purchases. You will see lay offs, lower wages and factory closings in China. All of which will lead to less demand for fuel.

    Even if the oil prices fall, we really need to invest into alternative energies and to increase conservation by the general populace. Even if we increase drilling in this country, the continued heavy reliance on foreign controlled oil fields in unstable areas of the world and the real possibility of declining supplies in the future means oil is a dead end.
     
  7. kerf

    kerf Guest

    Finite yes, out now, no. Brazil just hit 33,000,000,000 barrels and estimates indicate we're sitting on 88,000,000,000 barrels. Zev0, I'm not trying to be a smart a$$ but you need to stop watching CNBC. They have a severe leftist slant. CNBC, CNN, CBS and NBC are banned form my TV, too depressing. Try Fox for two weeks and you won't go back.

    PS
    A little Rush won't hurt either.
     
  8. astring

    astring Member

  9. SirJakesus

    SirJakesus Guest

    You listen to Rush "Pills" Limbaugh? Gross. Both sides of the Main Stream Media are on the same team of smoke and mirrors. I would believe them about as much as the village idiot. I don't trust a **** thing that is ever reported through monopoly controlled sources in the US. Read some books, foreign news and independent documentaries and you get a much better view of the sick world we live in. Heres a good site for documentaries for those of us who can't get through a book. Some real eye openers in here, as well as some carp of course.
    http://sprword.com/
     
  10. kerf

    kerf Guest

    I don't listen to Rush enough to be grossed out. I only listen 3 hours a day, 5 days a week. I used to listen to G. Gordon Liddy but he's too far to the left for me.
     
  11. astring

    astring Member

    Did you read that Obama is making inroads in the South? The African American community there are expected to have a record turnout:grin:
     
  12. kerf

    kerf Guest

    I believe he'll run strong and I can assure you I don't see race as an issue. When I look at McCain and Obama the only difference is see is one's taller. Other than that there is no difference, in anything, which is why I'll probably vote for Barr or write myself in. You see, I've accepted that I'm going to lose this election, regardless who wins.

    After 4 years of Carter II, we'll try again.
     
  13. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    The Mountainman agrees -- Fox News for more of a STRAIGHT SHOT OF NEWS --- But - as for Rush - gets old listening to him - best rush that I had was years ago - and not on the radio !! Today - sober - helps while riding !!! Happy Riding from - Mountainman
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2008
  14. astring

    astring Member

    we really need a politics forum here
     
  15. Zev0

    Zev0 Member

    OK OK, enough of the politics or we'll have to lock the thread. Politics, religion, etc, not allowed here. Sorry.
     
  16. darwin

    darwin Well-Known Member

    Jessica Alba for prez! Shes as qualified as anyone running now and easy on the eyes.
     
  17. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    She is constitutionally barred, at this time.. You must be 35 or older to become president.
     
  18. sparky

    sparky Active Member

    Are you sure you're from AL?? Ya sound like Stephen Colbert, being color blind and all.

    I agree I'm going to lose this election also, but I really do hope that Barr gets 5% of the votes. I feel like getting a 3rd candidate in the main debates during the 2012 election is the only way I'll really gain any faith in our government.

    However, I will prolly be voting for Barack in hopes that enough Democrats can turn Mississippi any other color than red. I will be hoping that McCain's $300 mil proposal for better battery tech will still go thru. But I will remain a libertarian for life... only issue I disagree with is healthcare. If I have a job and need emergency help, I should be able to walk straight into the hospital and get that help within minutes. I have had to wait in a lobby for almost 2 hours while my friend is bleeding inside his head because somebody hit the back of his head with a pool stick. I've gone to the ER twice for my own problems... both times it takes hours to see a doctor. When I had appendicitis, requiring surgery, there was no surgeon here in a city of around 80k people. My insurance company had to pay for a $2000 ambulance ride that took me less than 10 miles to the next city over. It's not like you get a choice in an emergency situation... just get you in, get professional help, get you out. That should be what we're doing in hospitals, but insurance companies always screw us over.

    And I think it's a shame that no real Democratic candidate has that position, maybe Edwards. Hillary wanted to FINE you if you didn't have healthcare, and Obama just wants to make it cheaper. Democrats aren't Democrats, and Republicans aren't Republicans anymore; they're all flip floppers taking sides with those who pay them most. I figured Obama would want to repay the millions of citizens who contributed to his campaign, but he's already changed stance on FISA and free trade, and supposedly gun control (but I don't keep up with this as much as this right won't ever be taken away for very long).
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2008
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