Stock market Crash 2008.

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by BlueCollarBikes, Sep 16, 2008.

  1. Stock market Crash 2008.:shock:


    Well i'm personally not a financial genius but looking back at 1987 We had a crash

    October 14 and October 19, 1987, major indexes of market valuation in the United States dropped 30 percent or more. On October 19, 1987, a date that subsequently became known as "Black Monday," the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its total value. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06.

    Umm.

    didn't this happen yesterday??

    http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582&client=news

    Dow was Down 504 points!! why hasn't this been the top head lines.

    Aren't people worried about their 401K 'S.
    Personally i have nothing But FDIC insured cd's.
    If the Feds go under then why the heck worrie ?? if that happens we are all screwed.
    I never played the Market but follow it as hobby.
    I think its going to get worst today ...The Us dollar has gone to po po.
    Hong Kong bite it last night.

    Again this is all a guess and the Market will not open until 9.30 this AM.

    I think the world is heading for a Great depression..BUT i hope I'm totally wrong.

    Cheers:smile:


    Bob
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2008

  2. bluegoatwoods

    bluegoatwoods Well-Known Member

    Well, the dow is inflated compared to 1987, so this 500 point drop doesn't amount to the same percentage. But yesterday was surely a "mini black Monday". And it looks like the other markets around the world are imitating.

    Also oil fell to 91 dollars and some change in the Asian market. I'm taking that as a sign that industrial activity is going to slow a lot. I suppose it'll take years to recover. Things are looking dim. and we're just gonna have to wait and see how bad it gets.

    So, good luck everyone.
     
  3. bluegoatwoods

    bluegoatwoods Well-Known Member

    Well, the dow is inflated compared to 1987, so this 500 point drop doesn't amount to the same percentage. But yesterday was surely a "mini black Monday". And it looks like the other markets around the world are imitating.

    Also oil fell to 91 dollars and some change in the Asian market. I'm taking that as a sign that industrial activity is going to slow a lot. I suppose it'll take years to recover. Things are looking dim. and we're just gonna have to wait and see how bad it gets.

    So, good luck everyone.
     
  4. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    yes -- felt this coming for at least a year or two

    in a way it seems like paying our dues -- for wrongs that we have done

    such as -- many refinancing their homes
    taken out amounts of monies -- way above true worth

    then the many bone head agents of lenders
    guilty of greed -- giving loans to ones that should not have been qualified
    just so they could have their little commission check
    loyalty to their companies -- had been lost

    hang on tight -- I predict that before things start to improve -- we will see
    unemployment reaching close to 8 to 10 %

    it appears at this time -- stock market is on the way to a 20 to 30 % drop

    who knows how low the stock market will drop
    before it starts a solid comeback ?

    Ride That Thing - Mountainman
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2008
  5. arceeguy

    arceeguy Active Member

    Great point.
    Some people are cheering for the collapse of our financial markets so that they can use it as a tool to gain political power. Even when times were good, they weren't if you listened to the news. The media keeps pounding the message of crisis and they are partially responsible for the perception of the way things are. Personally, I don't think this country is in bad shape. When life throws a curve ball at you, you take your best swing and keep at it until you hit a home run. (or at least a base hit)

    I've had to change careers a few times due to jobs moving overseas, or a trade that has vanished. I didn't complain about how the govt. wasn't doing its job, I did what I needed to do to keep a roof over my family and to keep us fed. One thing for sure, this country can use less stock traders, and the ones that are losing their jobs may have to find different career paths. I've been there and done that so I don't want to hear any whining. ;)
     
  6. skyl4rk

    skyl4rk Guest

    I'm buyin
     
  7. JemmaUK

    JemmaUK Guest

    Its not a black wednesday yet (England, 1992) but its not that far off I dont think. Its one thing to have minnow companies dropping off the map like flies, its a whole 'nother thing to have massive companies imploding.

    Even that wouldnt be so bad if it was just the banking/insurances industry. But its airlines, including national carriers and fairly established players in their specific fields.

    In all the time I can remember I have never ever seen falls like this in the UK and certainly not in the US markets... if it spreads to others such as Japan then I think we really are in trouble.. from that point it would just take a couple of major companies in different industries to jump the parapet and we might be looking at a world crash ala 1929-35

    Incidentally - I have every right to critique US politics/politicians because since before I was born my family has been in nuking distance of 3 US Airbases and the politics of both countries has been linked with America in the ascendant.
    Not to mention the fact that in the last week alone two soldiers from my town have been killed fighting a war started by BushCo - which makes 120-odd so far in the uk - a war started on two fronts in the two most difficult places to fight in on the globe... Just a little history lesson for you - the only person to defeat both in the last 3000 years was Alexander the Great and once he'd done it he sensibly up sticks and legged it.
    On a more personal note. I have been truthful about myself on here it seems only to my detriment. Im sorry if people cant take the truth that there are people that arent straight.. but get used to it because it will not change and hasnt since the first ape stopped scratching his behind and started scratching his head.
    Why do I not like republicans and what they represent?

    Google the names brandon teena & matthew shepard... oh and tempest smith - that should get you started..

    ok - rant over. Subject Closed

    Jemma
     
  8. HoughMade

    HoughMade Guest

    4.4% drop.

    Personal opinion here- there was so much "irrational exuberance" and cheap money in the '90s right up until recently that unjustifiable credit risks were granted loans that, in an earlier time, would never have been considered (both personal and commercial). While this fueled extensive growth in the '90s, there was very little substance to underlie that growth.

    Now, those credit risks (again, personal and commercial) are doing what should have been predicted- defaulting. This isn't just a mortgage issue, but that is a large part of it. Because multiple levels of financial institutions all jumped into these loans (not just the loans, but packaging securities backed by the loans, then leveraging the "value" of those securities to buy more of the same), when the defaults started, it affected every level.

    The local banks made the loan, sold it to a regional bank, which sold it to a nationwide bank, which worked with an investment house to package the loans which were sold as securities backed by loans to other investment houses, which sold the securities to the public and corporations including insurance companies (which make no money from premiums- they make their money investing the premium money).

    When the defaults came, the securities lost value and the investment houses, insurance companies and every other entity invested in these securities (your 401k, your pension fund, your mutual fund) lost money because what was backing them devalued. Those actually holding the loans obviously lost money because of the increased default rate. They quit buying loans of certain types from the national banks, which in turn quit buying them from the smaller banks, which were left with bad loans themselves.

    I say all that to say this- what will happen is that there will be, and is, a market "correction." In the recent past, investments were returning profits which were not justified based on the nuts and bolts of the underlying economy. It was all based on putting more value on people and companies than they actually had. Loans were made based, not on what people and companies traditionally could be expected to repay, but on some multiple of that (125% or more). Why? The makers of the loans were selling them upstream and would not bear the long term risk (they thought) and those upstream were not paying attention to the quality of the loans because they were trusting the makers of the loans and a low historical default rate (a low rate based on higher quality credit risks).

    At some point, we will get back to an economy based on actual value, not hopes and dreams. We will then move forward- hopefully at a rate of rational growth.

    Until them, people will lose the houses they could never afford. Property values will decline because the "value" was a vapor to begin with. People will remember a time when only the truly rich had houses over 3500 square feet- and realize they do not need that. They do not need 4 TVs, a new car every other year, pants that cost $100, or a refrigerator that costs $4,000.

    Life will go on.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 16, 2008
  9. HoughMade
    MBc Member


    wow.
    Hough.

    I couldn't not agree More. :smile:

    In the past So Many individuals where told their home Value jumped from $150,000 to $350.00 over night.

    Soon as they hear this they blow out the candles from their celebration party and run to the bank to buy another house to hopefully Flip while on a ARM loan.

    Then they Take out a second Mortgage so the can enjoy that well deserved vacation ..and A little sports car for the Miss, making sure there is still room in the Garage for the OVER priced Harley Davidson ( that will never be used)..
    Soon after the ARM Payment Doubles And one parent losses his or her job due to the economical correction they soon max out their Credit cards and collage funds just to pay the bills and put food on the table Still pretending everything is ok.
    SOON the bank forecloses on both First and second Homes.

    Scary part is The ones up here in the north that are just making it haven't even though of the $4.50 gallon of heating oil they will need to pay for just to survive the up coming winter.

    Your average home will need 3 to 6 Tanks with 175 gallons a fill.

    That's $700 each time the oil man comes to say Hi.

    Your going to see many fall to the heating bill ,
    may it be OIL, gas ,or electric.

    Personally i use Pellet fuel for the past 12 years.

    I have a feeling the next 4 years are going to be Rocky at best.

    Cheers

    Bob:smile:
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2008
  10. HoughMade

    HoughMade Guest

    To go slightly off topic- I have natural gas heat- are the pellets much cheaper?
     
  11. If you know what your buying ...And buy at the right time ..I think so.

    NG is allot less work.

    You would need to vacuum out your stove once every 3 weeks.
    I paid 3 tons .....$190 a ton ( 5o bags a ton ) in the spring one bag will burn for 24 hours on low.
    you can buy a cheap entry level pellet stove for under $1000 at lowes and Home Depot.


    But you need to buy your pellets in the spring when the industry needs the money.

    We do have a older large house.
    when i put the furnace in 12 years ago i plumed 15 zoned in the house.

    So when no one is using the room it gets turned off.we use the programmable thermostats as well.

    we do have 3 pellet stoves.

    I have one burning all the time..One in the Family room and use that on very cold days and special occasions.And one in our Bed room..Every night like clock work i fire it up to get us thru the cold nights.

    I use to use Wood but way to much work and very dangerous.

    cheers:smile:


    Bob
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2008
  12. terrence

    terrence Member


    Im not worried. I always wanted to work till i'm 92 sick and starving.
    "F"ing world leaders. "F"ing greedy financial instututions running the
    markets like a kid in a candy store. Lord save me, thats what im saying.
     
  13. BoltsMissing

    BoltsMissing Active Member

    I think it has surpassed the greed factor, it's financial sadism, sadistic financial manouveres cos thos who can do cos there is no other thrill left to do. Nature of ther Beast
     
  14. Alaskavan

    Alaskavan Guest

    I recently reread Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929. The parallels are amazing. In my opinion, the stock market probs of the past 20 something years have been "bubbles" and the economic corrections when they burst. In the '20's there were several similar "bubbles" (Land in Florida, Tulips, etc.). The bursting of such bubbles is a problem, but not a catastrophe for those not directly invested in them. However, the cycle of bubbles and their bursting may lead to a major Depression, as it did in the '20's, and that is a catastrophe for all. I think we're on the brink.
     
  15. Torques

    Torques Guest

    Van, can I move up there with you?
     
  16. Alaskavan

    Alaskavan Guest

    Not much call for air traffic controllers up here (I seem to recall that's your occupation, please forgive me if I'm wrong) It would be cool to have someone to ride with.

    Here, if the economy crashes, I'll have more time for hunting, fishing and chopping firewood.
     
  17. arceeguy

    arceeguy Active Member

    Uh Huh, and if you had your own "real" military, you wouldn't need our American soldiers out there to cover your sorry butts. Maybe we should dissolve NATO and let everyone fend for themselves. You're welcome.
     
  18. Alaskavan

    Alaskavan Guest

    Arceeguy, if you have anything salient and or dignified to say, I'm interested in hearing it. But I suspect that you would be hard pressed to identify exactly where our American soldiers are protecting the posteriors of our English friends. If I was in the mood, I might argue that American soldiers aren't covering anyone, anywhere, and haven't for quite some time.
     
  19. arceeguy

    arceeguy Active Member

    Right, so basically American NATO forces are out there in Europe to "occupy" the region. Jemma seems to think that our bases in her region have missiles pointed at her nation, not to protect her nation. So yes, we are covering their sorry butts whether you care to admit it or not. America always gets the raw deal with these "multinational" agreements. We provide more funding and troops than all other NATO nations combined. We provide more funding to the UN than the other UN nations combined. Maybe we should withdraw from the UN and NATO and save billions. These other nations don't like us anyway, but will not refuse our help or money.
     
  20. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    Well, first of all, WE wrote the UN treaty and protocols. Truman signed it, the US Senate ratified it. The apportionment of financial responsibility was written into that. Secondly, NATO was created in the aftermath of WWII in order to provide a legal framework within which we (the US) could confront the Soviet Union in western Europe - on the (correct) theory that 'twas better to confront them there, than in Canada, Alaska, or Mexico. Since it was put in place at our behest and in our interest, it behooved us to foot the bills. Cheap at the price, really.

    The UN is toothless - the only real power is in the Security Council, and we (along with the other permanent members) have a unilateral veto over any action sought there. What the UN does provide is a safety valve (a poor one, but it's what we got) for the screaming masses - let them rant in Assembly, it is essentially meaningless blather. NATO today provides many benefits to the US and it's member states - not least being a commonality of training framework which assures that our military forces can, at need, communicate and coordinate. I think it quite likely that NATO has, by its very existence, acted as a damper on the historic european tendency toward internecine warfare. Without it, there would have almost certainly have been a major european land war by no later than the late 1960's, which would have gone nuclear fairly quickly. Not a good scenario at all.

    Jemma is quite correct - US bases everywhere were (and are now) nuclear targets. If you think otherwise, you are deluding yourself. In the continental US military targets are ranked in order of priority of removal in the event of a major outbreak - by ranking, I live 2.5 miles from number 3 - Barksdale AFB, home of the remaining B-52 bombers in our arsenal, the Eighth Air Force. US airbases on the island of Britain are first order targets, and have been so for 60 plus years now. So her assessment is pretty much correct. Her concern with US politics is perfectly legitimate.
     
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