Your Countries Economy Predictions Are ???

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Mountainman, Jan 27, 2009.

  1. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    Well I stated back some time ago now
    that we here in the US had not hit the big bottom yet
    sorry to say at this point in time -- holding terribly true

    Iam thinking that we need to hold on tight as

    the unemployment level will go up to around 10%
    before THINGS start to do a turn around

    predicting that one out of every six businesses will go under

    we all hope and pray that this will NOT be the case
    just seems that we are in for one BIG ADJUSTMENT at this time

    many claim that this is -- or will be worse than other recessions
    I don't see that -- as we still have much food at the grocery stores
    and thank the Lord above
    that most here do have roof over head, food to eat and water to drink

    as hard as times may get
    we need to remember that we are blessed and should be grateful...

    just wondering -- how low do you think it will go ?

    Iam grateful as I ride that THING

  2. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    Well, mountainman, I think you are unduly optimistic, perhaps. 10% unemployment? Try more like 20 - 35%. I've endured that, in the early 1980's in northwestern Oregon. I lived in Oregon City then, and both paper mills in town shut down. Unemployment hit 32% at one point for that area, and 2 of the 3 big grocery stores in town closed their doors.

    I look for the bottom to be hit about the end of 2010 to early 2011. How long it will stay down is anybodies guess. Hope I'm wrong.
  3. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    woo -- 20 - 35%

    wooo -- not sure we could make it through a 20 - 35%
    or at least not sure if we could ever recover from someTHING like that

    I don't think that at that point there would be anyTHING much left
    as far as retirements, savings of most any kind etc

    but noted -- times are getting rough in many countries -- as follows:

    Iceland's coalition government collapsed yesterday
    the first government to fall as a direct result of the global economic turmoil
    Icelanders were once among the worlds wealthiest people

    last months collapse of the Belgian government

    hope THINGS get better soon
  4. bluegoatwoods

    bluegoatwoods Well-Known Member

    I'm inclined to agree with Simple Simon's forecast of 2010-2011 as the bottom at the earliest.

    I also lived in an area in the early 80s with unemployment somewhere near that 30% range. Luckily those were strictly local "bad spots". A nationwide rate like that would be really disastrous.

    But we haven't yet really felt the pain that's coming in this one. It won't be long, i don't think. We'd better brace ourselves.
  5. Skyliner70cc

    Skyliner70cc Active Member

    Forever is my prediction if the following occurs;

    1. strangle us auto makers with tougher emission and fuel economy standards. US automakers are sucking pretty bad and these newer rules will hurt and not help.

    2. If Kyoto treaty goes into effect limiting CO2 emissions-but not hot air from DC-expect US industry to be totally decimated. You think blue collar workers got it tough right now, wait until industry must curtail output to meet so called green house gas emissions or have to layoff workers to pay for CO2 gas credits they must buy in order to maintain current production.

    3. If Tax stimulus package is voted on, expect economy to worsen because Gov't is printing money to use it to pay off those who supported and got current president elected. How does spending money on birthcontrol, ACORN, abortion overseas, grass resodding help the economy? There is so much pork in this bill it ain't even funny and little of this money will actually do any good. Gov't doesn't create jobs.

    Folks, the crisis will get worse so that the current administration can use crisis to advance its own political agenda of nationalizing and socializing as much of this great nation as it could.

    Inflation: Expect inflation to hit double digits. The gov't can't keep printing money and expect nothing to happen.
  6. Happy Valley

    Happy Valley Active Member

    What is the verifiable source that the government is printing?
  7. kerf

    kerf Guest

    Lets see, we're running a budget deficit already and they're still spending, guess printing more paper is the only way. If you or I do that, run the account dry and continue to write checks, we go to jail!!!!!!!

    This recession could be over by summer, quit spending and announce a two year moratorium on the capital gains tax. The economy would heal itself and money would flow into the treasury. That won't happen because taxes aren't about raising money for the government, it's about the hammer and sickle controlling our lives. Go ahead, think kerf's a nut but I'm not the one talking about "not wasting a crisis".
  8. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    corn balls keep printing more money

    hey HV
    it just seems to be fairly easy for one to figure out

    our money has not been backed up by gold for manys years now

    many, many corn ball ones in government, banking -- the list goes on and on
    spent and or wasted most all the money -- yours mine and their's

    let's just take City Bank
    with all the hard times they are going through at this time
    City Bank just bought a 50 million dollar company jet
    nice to know that bail out money got there on time

    simple question
    if we are basically as a country broke
    and we need a hundred billion dollars or what ever
    there are a few THINGS we get going for starters
    borrowing mass amounts of monies from other countries

    if we borrow monies from the Chinese and others we need to turn it into US currency

    bottom line -- these are big time loans that our childrens childrens
    will still be a paying on......

    we are trully putting it to them -- don't tell the little sweet ones
    somebody messed up -- big time

    corn balls should not be allowed to ride the motor bike thing
  9. bluegoatwoods

    bluegoatwoods Well-Known Member

    When the mods say "no politics", it's one side bashing the other that they're talking about.

    Why do you guys want to slander and annoy half of your MB friends?

    Besides, your people had their chance at leadership and they brought us right to where we are now.

    You've got nothing to lose by letting our people have a chance. Quit trying to sabotage them. If you're willing to cut your own throats as the price for cutting ours, then you're simply crazy.
  10. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    not real sure about that ?

    not real sure about that bluegoatwoods

    it's not just our country in trouble
    seems to be the whole world having money, employment etc problems
    are you saying that Bush brought down the whole world ???

    hey I didn't vote for him
    but as mentioned before Iam praying and wishing well for my Obama Mama

    I did hear the other day that 30% in the US hope that he fails
    as you say -- these are some very crazy ones sharing space here

    we can take off and ride those things
  11. I just am grateful that I'm working right now, and I plan to work hard to keep my job in the years ahead! I'm getting a 2nd job too for a bit, to put some money into the savings. Some money in the bank will come in handy if stuff goes down!

    I bet my roommate feels pretty bad though for quitting his job... he has noone to blame but himself though, he is always acts crazy on the job and gets himself fired. I hope it wont take the economy for him to realize its a lot better to get a 2nd job before quitting your 1st.

    He better get moving tho and get another one soon before the economy gets worse!
  12. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    a lot of wisdom shown there young man
    some here on site do not have a job
    then when many here share with them ideas so as to possibly find work
    it seems they do nothing

    I am retired -- most of my life worked two or three jobs
    and as you have stated so well
    we don't quit one until we have another !!!

    just good common sense as we ride those things
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2009
  13. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    Mountainman, Citibank did NOT just buy a corporate jet. Ignore the idiots on the tube, and look at the facts.

    In 2005 they put down a non-refundable deposit on a $70 million Falcon biz jet. Standard practice in that industry - they don't behin building it till they have a confirmed order. They were at delivery time, and the balance was due. Under pressure from the government, they defaulted on that contract and cancelled the order, forfeiting the deposit.

    No new jet was delivered, no payment was made. They "might" get some or all of the deposit back if the government pressures the builders enouigh - after the aircraft sells. In the current economic climate, it may never sell.
  14. arceeguy

    arceeguy Active Member

    Thank you Simon!

    The media is not telling you the whole truth here. It's not like you walk up to a private jet dealership and say - "I want the white one with red stripes", and fly away that evening. The jack@ss news seems more interested in pitting consumers against business at every opportunity. Same goes for the multi-year sponsorships of sports stadiums. These contracts were signed years ago, but the news media would have you believe that they just signed these million dollar deals the minute after the government bailed them out.
  15. kerf

    kerf Guest

    Bash, slander, sabotage, I hope your not writing about me?????
    As for hoping anyone fails, I don't but the reality of government actions is still there. If these steps are not going to stimulate, well you do the math.
  16. Skyliner70cc

    Skyliner70cc Active Member

    Starbucks has laid off thousands of employees yet they purchased a new corporate jet recently too. Granted they didn't get taxpayer money, what businesses do is none of our business.

    The housing crisis is what has caused this big mess. Big biz is not entirely at fault for it was the Gov't (community reinvestment act) and pressure from groups like ACORN that forced lenders to lend to people (low income minorities, illegal aliens, etc) who had no business buying a home with their credit and/or income history. Banks didn't care because when the gov't because involved, they backed the loans with the full faith of the gov't-us the taxpayers. Gov't involvement always has negative unintended consequences that lawmakers don't even consider-promoting the wrong behavior.

    Blaming a single person former president is politically convenient and doesn't require much thought. As for opposing the current president, I'll use the argument that folks who opposed the last president used: Dissidence is the purest and most patriotic expression of our freedom :) However, for some reason the dissidence against the former administration was welcomed as free speech but now it isn't.

    I'm no fan of Noam Chomsky but he did say the following: "If we don't believe in freedom of expression for
    people we despise, we don't believe in it at all."
    -- Noam Chomsky
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2009
  17. Happy Valley

    Happy Valley Active Member

    I asked for a verifiable source that shows an increase in the money supply.
    You gentlemen are speaking about an increase in spending with a subsequent increase in debt and as verifiable and perhaps as abhorrent as that might be, it does not mean the treasury is printing.

    I've seen no verifible source yet.
    Certain though, there is an increase of misinformation in circulation.

    It gets stated all the time "the govt is printing" and asking for credible proof doesn't mean one is saying they are or are not. The point of asking is simple: to find an answer beyond anecdote or barstool politics.

    The current info I've seen on money supply, M-123, shows M1 or money in circulation as flat, which seems to correlate since we are in a major deflationary period.


    Conventional wisdom holds an increase in the money supply would indicate an inflationary period.
  18. arceeguy

    arceeguy Active Member

    Here you go.
  19. kerf

    kerf Guest

    Well, I guess we're even because I've never seen verifiable evidence of global warming but it must be real, our Pres. says so. Excuse me I need to put on another coat, cold here in the DEEEEEP SOUTH.
  20. Happy Valley

    Happy Valley Active Member

    Yes, I saw that earlier today, though essentially the article refers to Fed actions on the non-MO component of M1-M3 statistics as in commercial bank money IE: money created through loans, easing of credit and securities purchase.
    The Fed doesn't print money, only the treasury can.

    Global warming? And that is relevant here, how again? Perhaps the cold front has the Red Herring running.