Living the dream



bike4life

Active Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2018
Messages
786
Anyone still playing with options.... This is a simulator. Too bad i don't have real money in them. Started the game with 100k about 3 months ago. bakaneo hows your index options doing. The s/p 500 index option if bought like last month is up 30%, the corano virus didn't tank it that much lol :(
92926
 

bakaneko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 16, 2015
Messages
1,417
Anyone still playing with options.... This is a simulator. Too bad i don't have real money in them. Started the game with 100k about 3 months ago. bakaneo hows your index options doing. The s/p 500 index option if bought like last month is up 30%, the corano virus didn't tank it that much lol :(
View attachment 92926
not too bad. yeh market is up hard. we are in a strong bull market without much risk imo ahead till election time unless of course coronvirus becomes zombie apocalypse. my strategy has a downside protection but has a positive bias. i dont invest in individual companies just general market. also, paper trading is a bit different than real trading with emotions. but, this is a good start.

there is always a positive bias to the market. key is to look forward and see what significant new risks. to me, its the election. so, i tell people looking to invest to go ahead but mind the 1month and post election volatility.

im working on a day trading strat on the market now using statistical analysis. i like bot trading. but, it will take time to develop and test. the problem i see with a lot people is that they dont test. ok, the market is going up but that is like not necessary luck but a significant reason why individual stocks are going up. its all about relative gain to market and also being comfortable with drawdowns or buying at good price.
 

bike4life

Active Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2018
Messages
786
bakeno what was your portfolio P / L % , if you dont mind, curious how your bot trading compares to technicals/fundamentals/or yoloing into meme stocks lol...
 
Last edited:

bakaneko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 16, 2015
Messages
1,417
it really depends. varies from 9% to -2% per month. im only using 20% of my portfolio atm. actually, kinda peeved at my broker; im getting charged a lot for simply having an API that i really dont need atm but might need in future. err, this is satisfactory for me; its not my primary income and im starting two additional business ventures soon. i really need a bot...

9% is like ideal scenario of course. im more about trying to capture downside moves and be dynamic in the market. you are long stocks and hence market. overall, im long the market but with put legs to be on both sides; ive had months where my puts paid off hard with like 200-300% gain on capital but that is getting more rare and rare due to such a strong market. the hard part is trying to predict the volatility on downside. i use feel and also like 96% percentile or something, i forget i need to check model on other comp. its not a hard science but i do like to but on far right and left of the distribution curve.

going primary long is fine and probably we all end up on the same place per normalized volatility though sometimes all these trades isnt really worth it and just going hard long is better. i dont know i just experience both the bull and bear in the market so im a bit more cautious than most that have started investing/trading only in bull market. again, long is fine to me till one month before elections then i be real cautious and seriously think about going more cash. never hedge unless you are a prophet.

investing via options is new to me. not options. obviously there is theta decay, which i am not sure how you manage or if you have a time frame to say at this point i need to get out. option theta starts ramping up 1 month before and obviously most 2 days out to expiration. not sure if you are buying near atm for delta or far from money.

not sure if you heard about the vxx situation. during the bull market a younger guy managing some money been doing real well just shorting the call options (inverse of market) and getting good premiums without a hedge. nothing particularily novel or mind blowing; i would never do it. but, then, a serious market bump happened he got wiped out hard like hard. you are not doing naked shorts but this is kinda relevant; because out right buying options is a high leverage. actually, it turns out a lot of other bull traders were simply shorting the vxx and making a killing for a while before that bump. when that bump happened, all the brokerages got huge margin calls on those clients. it was a big scandal. because it showed the greed of it all and how greed blinded them to the dangers of naked selling a double leveraged instrument. anyways, there is no more vxx because of that. vxx has been in the market as a bear hedge for YEARS and poof gone because of those guys. i really coulda used the vxx...
 

bike4life

Active Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2018
Messages
786
I see ya bakaneo. I don't know too much but am learning every day, step by step. My plan is options trading for early retirement. If i can duplicate this in the real world on a real account, Ill be set, because of compounding and exponential growth. I started 3 months ago and am up 3x, but also feel like this bull market with real cheap stuff might not happen again soon, its too bad i am not old enough to open a brokerage nor have enough funds saved up.
I do sorta look theta decay. This is useful... https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/ and this https://www.tradingview.com/
I usually buy like 1month at least experations and sell it before they expire fast. But right now, most of my options are so far in the money, that theta decay isn't effecting them. Like i have an amd call that i bought at 35 dollars, and amd is now like 60, and it expires next month. I could hold that till the last day and still be fine with no theta decay. But some of the options which arent deep in the money yeah theta decay will mess them up and i will have to keeep my eyes on that... But yeah for my stuff thats otm or not too far itm theta decay takes a big toll.
I usually look at charts and indicators, but they seem a little hyped i guess. Like i dont understand how you could 100% trade just off indicators alone... I also look at wall street bets, i know, i am a degenerate lol....
Eventually, i guess i might take a less risky approach like when i have enough $ and just use condors and stuff, but idk. I never head about that vxx story, cool thx. I personally like long calls. They are simple and easy to understand, and ill probably just trade that for a long time, and if the markets bear, i just wont trade for a while... I could buy puts but idk....
9% a month is good. (1.09)^12 is 2.8 So you can tripple your money every year with that.... Right now i am riding the bull wave but idk if that will last for ever. I should eventually add stop orders and stuff, .... What brokerage do u use?
 
Last edited:

bakaneko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 16, 2015
Messages
1,417
okay, here is the thing. you are a young guy. this business to me is a means to an end. i think most here like to MAKE things. this is not making anything. its like shuffling money around but a bug is a bug. there are companies that fund proven traders (2 combines following P&L DD rules); its not a scam but their rules dont work with a lot of successful traders; I know many that make money in futures trading but will fail their program. it cost $150 to test yourself (obviously if its free people just dont care and go nuts). its futures day trading (S&P500, crude oil, commodoties, mebe curriency i dont remember). i can give you intraday data through my brokerage for you to model in S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ, cruide oil, or gold.

if you want it play with it and get a strategy that works with their parameters you can fund yourself or i can consider giving you one entry fee after you "show" me decent results; you dont have to show me what you are doing but i need to see model work via their criteria and not curve fitting or etc; we can do a skype thing or something.

lets pm this going forward as its not really about bikes. if you are interested ill tell u more about it. i use interactive brokers; foogin actually cost money to trade stocks LUL and i pay more for options than you too. LUL why am i even using these guys anymore.

and, yes, i know optionsprofitcalc; problem is that they dont model changes in volatility and just use current volatility, which is okay in certain types of trades and not in others.
 

darwin

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 26, 2008
Messages
3,812
I admire folks who can make money in the short term and understand what they're doing. A lot smarter than me. At my age conservative is the word of the day. I can't afford to lose the savings we have. So 2% CD's are as good as it gets right now. If I were 20 years younger it would be different.
 

bike4life

Active Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2018
Messages
786
I admire folks who can make money in the short term and understand what they're doing. A lot smarter than me. At my age conservative is the word of the day. I can't afford to lose the savings we have. So 2% CD's are as good as it gets right now. If I were 20 years younger it would be different.
Yeah i feel ya. Time is of the essence.
100,000 becomes 1.6 Million in 4 doubles 2^4= 16 .... Question becomes how long does it take you to double? 1 year, 2 years, 1 month, 20 years???
The law of 72 tells you how fast your money will double when compounded... It is based of the number e. 72/2% = 36 years to double at 2% CD. If you get 72% interest every year, you will double your money every year. You get 30ish% interest each year, congrats, youll double every 2 years almost. Now that means just 8 years till you can reach that 1.6 Million.
But if you play options and are lucky, you get pull in 30% each month or on a blue moon in an hour. But you could also lose it just as fast. Whereas with stocks its much less risk. Stocks you have to guess the direction of the price, up or down. Options you have to guess the direction, the timing because each day your option loses value and they expire in a month of less unlike stocks which last forever, and the magnitude because the stock might have went up but you could still be losing money if the magnitude is off. Nice thing with options is LEVERAGE. Like Apple stock is currently 300 dollars a share. But an apple option is maybe $10 dollars. So you can leverage 30x, you can control 900k of stock with only 30k. Some are 100x, so you can control 1 million of stock with only 10 grand. That's why people can get 500+% gains or losses, because its leveraged 30x or what not. Stock goes up 1%, your account just went up 30%. With stocks you need to take out margin to get leverage, but with options you dont have too, its built in. I like that because that means they can't close your position or try to come after your house and stuff if you mess up. Its gambling but the odds are a lot lot better and you can also make it not gambling by using certain options strategies that limit risk and stuff and becoming a trader with a plan. Nice thing though is with options unless you trade on margin, you can only lose 100%, and not more... Like my costco option was -99% for like a month but it just went up to +80% in a few days. but one of my tesla options stayed at -99% and expired worthless. Key here is have more winners (costco example) than losers (tesla), so % winning traders > % losing trades. You will always have losing trades though :( Funny another tesla option though was up +600%. risk management and a tad bit of diversification and good plans are very important and all this info is out there on youtube for free. I had no clue what options were like 3 months ago. But obviously to each their own. A lot of people wont touch these financial instruments and thats cool too. Nice thing is that options have been around like 70 years ago and maybe even 100 years ago when the stock exchange opened. Crypto has only been around 10 years. Crypto had really killed a lot of people as its not tried and true, it was the wild west. Nearly all crypto currencies have went to $0 and they dont look like they will ever recover.
 
Last edited:
Top