Predictions, anyone?

mark2yahu

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I'm thinkin' gas will go up to 8 bucks a gallon by 2012...that is, if the Mayan calendar is wrong about that year being the end of da world. Motorized bikes, scooters, motorcycles, bicycles will proliferate in the streets, like it has in Asia and parts of Europe. Scare tactics about ethanol depleting our food supplies will keep it from being mass-produced. Never mind that ethanol can even be made from sawdust, algae-(biodiesel) 'n other plant vegetation. I don't eat sawdust. :LOL:
 
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SirJakesus

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They haven't perfected the science behind making mass quantities of ethanol from cellulose yet, thats why they're using corn and soy beans. Personally I hope they're using that round up ready **** for fuel while they're feeding us the real corn and soy, but I doubt it.
I really do wish to see more bikes and motorcycles on the roads, it would definitely remove a lot of our traffic congestion. Unfortunately here in the northeast two wheeled vehicles aren't very practical during the winter months. A good beefy tadpole trike with full enclosure and heat/wipers would do the job nicely though.
I predict that in the not so distant future high gasoline prices will be the least of our worries.
 

augidog

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it seems to me we have the perfect solution to curb tobacco-use...right now the US has a lot of agricultural acreage that's being used to kill people...

hehe...i predict "Winston-Salem" gas stations ;)
 
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stringer

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I think $8/gallon by 2012 is very probable. However I fear that $8/gallon is not enough to drastically change the automobile/motoredbike ratio substantially. We're at $4/gallon now and beleive me, there is no shortage of morons on the road yet. Most ppl here still drive colossal SUV's, and floor it every chance they get.

I think we would need to see $15/gallon before we see a revolution such as the one you describe. When that $15 gas arrives, and how much $15 is even worth when it gets here is a whole other story.
 

augidog

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We're at $4/gallon now and beleive me, there is no shortage of morons on the road yet.
:LOL::LOL: too funny...we have just experienced the incoming wave of tourists for the holiday weekend, i was sooo hoping there'd be a few less of them this time...NOT!
 

augidog

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is it ok to raise this point in here if i keep it economic instead of political?

i saw a news report explaining that it's wall-street and speculators who are mostly responsible for the sharp rise in energy costs...so, like them, i put 2 and 2 together & came up with 5...has anyone noticed that some car companies are now using a price-lock incentive to sell cars?

i'll bet that was predictable to those who knew what was up.
 
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SimpleSimon

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Oil pricing is a complicated affair, driven mostly by speculation. Nevertheless, several factors are impacting it to drive prices ever higher, and those factors are not going to go away. First, the US dollar is tanking. Oil futures are historically priced in dollars - where petroleum purchases are dollar funded, the sharply declining exchange rate of the dollar against such currencies as the Euro, and the yuan (in real market terms, not gov't fiat exchange rates).

Second is profiteering. Look at what has happened to gasoline prices here each year of the last 5 or more. Gasoline begins the year at an average price, which increases by 20-30% just in time for the first major travel event of the year, Memorial Day. It then slides back slightly over the course of the major travel season, which encourages the short-sighted to think - oh, I CAN afford that vacation trip we planned, if we are careful. Then, it spikes back higher than the Memorial Day prices as Labor Day (2nd biggest travel holiday of the yr) approaches, and post holiday it slides back again. Over the course of the year, it increases by between 20% to 30%. Every year.

Well, in that same period, the dollar has gone from being worth more than the euro, to being worth about 60% of the euro. In real market terms, the value of the yuan against the dollar has nearly quintupled over the same period, due to the huge imbalance of trade between the nations.

Thirdly, alternative fuels - notably biofuels derived from food grains and soy, are net energy users to produce and deliver, commercially. There are good alternatives which do not utilize feed grains for fermentation - the most immediately viable here is switchgrass, which delivers over 5 times the energy in fuel that it takes to grow, process, and distribute. The first large-scale biofuels production facility in the nation which uses switchgrass has recently begun production, and the acreage planted to switch grass is going up, exponentially. Best part of that is that switchgrass is a native north american prairie grass, and is VERY economical to produce in large quantity, using land not best suited to feed grain production.

Given current economic trends, US foreign policy and economic policy, and our consumer culture, gasoline will likely hit $5- $7/gallon by years end, and by 2012 (or much sooner, if the oncoming PRIME mortgage market collapse hits as hugely as expected) you can expect $15 - $20/gallon gasoline. Potentially, vastly more if the credit collapse drives a really vicious inflationary spiral here.

The US spent over two hundred years building the vastest, most productive industrial economy in history. We've spent the last 25 years dismembering that industrial base, until virtually nothing is actually made here anymore, except weapons and agricultural products. We, in effect, have liquidated in my adult lifetime, the accumulated wealth of 2+ centuries labors. Our society has been the profligate playboy heir of hardworking, frugal parents, and the end is in sight. It isn't pretty.
 

mark2yahu

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("The US spent over two hundred years building the vastest, most productive industrial economy in history. We've spent the last 25 years dismembering that industrial base, until virtually nothing is actually made here anymore, except weapons and agricultural products. We, in effect, have liquidated in my adult lifetime, the accumulated wealth of 2+ centuries labors. Our society has been the profligate playboy heir of hardworking, frugal parents, and the end is in sight. It isn't pretty." --SimpleSimon)

Well put, SimpleSimon. This is what I've been trying to explain to others who would listen. From that, it isn't really hard to predict the outcomes.
 

augidog

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if others would listen, we wouldn't be having this discussion. great informative post, there, 'simon :cool:

another "ethical" point about our economy vs. others, i saw this presented by someone on the senate floor:

CEO:labor operating cost in japan and the EU = 8-12:1
CEO:labor operating cost in the USA = up to 400:1
 
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