Predictions, anyone?

Discussion in 'General Questions' started by mark2yahu, Jul 2, 2008.

  1. mark2yahu

    mark2yahu Member

    I'm thinkin' gas will go up to 8 bucks a gallon by 2012...that is, if the Mayan calendar is wrong about that year being the end of da world. Motorized bikes, scooters, motorcycles, bicycles will proliferate in the streets, like it has in Asia and parts of Europe. Scare tactics about ethanol depleting our food supplies will keep it from being mass-produced. Never mind that ethanol can even be made from sawdust, algae-(biodiesel) 'n other plant vegetation. I don't eat sawdust. :lol:
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2008

  2. SirJakesus

    SirJakesus Guest

    They haven't perfected the science behind making mass quantities of ethanol from cellulose yet, thats why they're using corn and soy beans. Personally I hope they're using that round up ready **** for fuel while they're feeding us the real corn and soy, but I doubt it.
    I really do wish to see more bikes and motorcycles on the roads, it would definitely remove a lot of our traffic congestion. Unfortunately here in the northeast two wheeled vehicles aren't very practical during the winter months. A good beefy tadpole trike with full enclosure and heat/wipers would do the job nicely though.
    I predict that in the not so distant future high gasoline prices will be the least of our worries.
  3. augidog

    augidog New Member

    it seems to me we have the perfect solution to curb tobacco-use...right now the US has a lot of agricultural acreage that's being used to kill people...

    hehe...i predict "Winston-Salem" gas stations ;)
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2008
  4. stringer

    stringer New Member

    I think $8/gallon by 2012 is very probable. However I fear that $8/gallon is not enough to drastically change the automobile/motoredbike ratio substantially. We're at $4/gallon now and beleive me, there is no shortage of morons on the road yet. Most ppl here still drive colossal SUV's, and floor it every chance they get.

    I think we would need to see $15/gallon before we see a revolution such as the one you describe. When that $15 gas arrives, and how much $15 is even worth when it gets here is a whole other story.
  5. augidog

    augidog New Member

    :lol::lol: too funny...we have just experienced the incoming wave of tourists for the holiday weekend, i was sooo hoping there'd be a few less of them this time...NOT!
  6. augidog

    augidog New Member

    is it ok to raise this point in here if i keep it economic instead of political?

    i saw a news report explaining that it's wall-street and speculators who are mostly responsible for the sharp rise in energy, like them, i put 2 and 2 together & came up with 5...has anyone noticed that some car companies are now using a price-lock incentive to sell cars?

    i'll bet that was predictable to those who knew what was up.
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2008
  7. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    Oil pricing is a complicated affair, driven mostly by speculation. Nevertheless, several factors are impacting it to drive prices ever higher, and those factors are not going to go away. First, the US dollar is tanking. Oil futures are historically priced in dollars - where petroleum purchases are dollar funded, the sharply declining exchange rate of the dollar against such currencies as the Euro, and the yuan (in real market terms, not gov't fiat exchange rates).

    Second is profiteering. Look at what has happened to gasoline prices here each year of the last 5 or more. Gasoline begins the year at an average price, which increases by 20-30% just in time for the first major travel event of the year, Memorial Day. It then slides back slightly over the course of the major travel season, which encourages the short-sighted to think - oh, I CAN afford that vacation trip we planned, if we are careful. Then, it spikes back higher than the Memorial Day prices as Labor Day (2nd biggest travel holiday of the yr) approaches, and post holiday it slides back again. Over the course of the year, it increases by between 20% to 30%. Every year.

    Well, in that same period, the dollar has gone from being worth more than the euro, to being worth about 60% of the euro. In real market terms, the value of the yuan against the dollar has nearly quintupled over the same period, due to the huge imbalance of trade between the nations.

    Thirdly, alternative fuels - notably biofuels derived from food grains and soy, are net energy users to produce and deliver, commercially. There are good alternatives which do not utilize feed grains for fermentation - the most immediately viable here is switchgrass, which delivers over 5 times the energy in fuel that it takes to grow, process, and distribute. The first large-scale biofuels production facility in the nation which uses switchgrass has recently begun production, and the acreage planted to switch grass is going up, exponentially. Best part of that is that switchgrass is a native north american prairie grass, and is VERY economical to produce in large quantity, using land not best suited to feed grain production.

    Given current economic trends, US foreign policy and economic policy, and our consumer culture, gasoline will likely hit $5- $7/gallon by years end, and by 2012 (or much sooner, if the oncoming PRIME mortgage market collapse hits as hugely as expected) you can expect $15 - $20/gallon gasoline. Potentially, vastly more if the credit collapse drives a really vicious inflationary spiral here.

    The US spent over two hundred years building the vastest, most productive industrial economy in history. We've spent the last 25 years dismembering that industrial base, until virtually nothing is actually made here anymore, except weapons and agricultural products. We, in effect, have liquidated in my adult lifetime, the accumulated wealth of 2+ centuries labors. Our society has been the profligate playboy heir of hardworking, frugal parents, and the end is in sight. It isn't pretty.
  8. mark2yahu

    mark2yahu Member

    ("The US spent over two hundred years building the vastest, most productive industrial economy in history. We've spent the last 25 years dismembering that industrial base, until virtually nothing is actually made here anymore, except weapons and agricultural products. We, in effect, have liquidated in my adult lifetime, the accumulated wealth of 2+ centuries labors. Our society has been the profligate playboy heir of hardworking, frugal parents, and the end is in sight. It isn't pretty." --SimpleSimon)

    Well put, SimpleSimon. This is what I've been trying to explain to others who would listen. From that, it isn't really hard to predict the outcomes.
  9. augidog

    augidog New Member

    if others would listen, we wouldn't be having this discussion. great informative post, there, 'simon :cool:

    another "ethical" point about our economy vs. others, i saw this presented by someone on the senate floor:

    CEO:labor operating cost in japan and the EU = 8-12:1
    CEO:labor operating cost in the USA = up to 400:1
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2008
  10. astring

    astring Member

    $10 per gallon summer 2009
  11. houcoogster

    houcoogster New Member

    The price doubled from $1 to $2 this took ten years then the price doubled from $2 to $4 in five years or less, so $4 to $8 in two and half years or less. Of course if the dollar falls any futher against international currencies that will be refelcted in the price.
  12. augidog

    augidog New Member

    that is just too freaky...
  13. loquin

    loquin Active Member

    What we SHOULD be doing is to move the ethanol crop production to the south. Use sugar cane instead of corn, though. It's a MUCH more efficient crop for this purpose than is corn...

    Think about it. The 'combine' cuts the cane & squeezes the sap out - it is pumped to a tank on the machine. Periodically, it gets transferred to a tanker. The left-over cane residue stays in the field, & eventually gets plowed under (& serves as compost)

    The tanker moves the sap to the processing plant, where it's fermented & distilled. Since the sap is nearly 100 percent sugar water, the fermentation is fast and just about 100 percent efficient. Corn, on the other hand, has to be ground up into meal, mixed with water (mashed) to release the starches, (cooked?) and then those starches have to be broken down into sugars before the fermentation can really begin to make ethanol. And then, you have to haul away the residue (the leftover fiber from the corn meal) and handle the corn oil byproduct.

    Brazil has been using sugar cane for ethanol for many years, and has worked out the bugs in the process already.

    The farmers in the midwest can sell their crops for food instead of fuel. PLUS, we'll add a NEW cash crop.

    Sugar cane & sorghum can be grown fairly far north in the US. My uncle grows sorghum cane (for molasses) in central Ohio.
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2008
  14. Mountainman

    Mountainman Active Member

    I think that you have just about hit it right here Mark -- 8.00 dollars by the year 2012 --- sounds darn close to me !!! Met a family on vacation - they were from Denmark - they said that they pay aprox. 11 US dollars a gallon !!!! We - in the USA have been getting gas cheap for A LONG TIME... As much as we all hate it -- I think the time is coming to where -- WE HAVE TO PAY OUR DUES.. Happy Riding from - Mountainman
  15. Simon_A

    Simon_A Member

    Here in Oz we use sugar cane bases etanol blend fuels in some servo's.

    Its a higher octane rated fuel for a lower cost than standard fuels.

    Sugar cane grows quickly the world oil reserves took millions of years to create.

    Also here on Oz fuel prices are about $1.70 a litre, they predict it will hit $2 a litre by christmas. Thats $8.80 a gallon.

    So forget fuel prices to hit $8 a gallon by 2012 people, expect it a lot sooner than that.
  16. houcoogster

    houcoogster New Member

    The reason gas is 11.00 a gallon in places like Denmark is TAXES those coutries have a consumption based tax system... here we are taxed on income , property, consumption (sales taxes), inspection ,registration, fishing, hunting and on and on. It is an unfair comparison to equate the two countries, another thing look at the land mass of the U.S. compared to E.U. they are two different worlds. The media wants you to feel good by showing you how much they pay for gas and conviently leave out all the important differences. And as far as paying our dues Americans have been paying dues since WWI.
  17. astring

    astring Member

    I read that switch grass is also good and it grows like a weed.
  18. bluegoatwoods

    bluegoatwoods Well-Known Member

    I don't think this is exactly on-topic, but I'd like to take this opportunity to defend the oil companies. (I'm doing it because I think they are being scape-goated. And I promise, I am no friend of big business, usually. For example, I think we should all be unionized and I would support a law making it automatic for anyone on a w-4 type income.)

    I've heard the notion that speculation is at least part of the reason for high oil prices. And though I don't think it's impossible, I look at high world wide demand coupled with the fact that the easiest oil in the world is under ever increasing threat from those who want to set the world on fire and I see all the explanation I need for high prices. I just don't see that speculation or price fixing is needed to explain it.

    And I can remember oil at $12.00/barrell, during the Reagan years. I'm grateful to the oil companies for sticking it out through times like that. I don't suppose they were raking in record profits under those conditions.
  19. SimpleSimon

    SimpleSimon Active Member

    As regards compulsory unionization for non-salaried employes, I'll say this - NO!

    Unions have their places and uses, but compulsory participation? I sauppose you are also in favor of reinstating the draft? Both are involuntary servitude.

    I have no beef with the oil companies - if you understand projective commodity pricing, then you KNOW why gasoline prices have skyrocketed. Speculation does indeed drive a very high proportion of the commodity price escalation.

    Frankly, insofar as sugar cane and sorghum as sources for biofuels go, they're great. Unfortunately, they require fairly intensive cultivation, and a LOT of water. Energy costs associated per unit of fuel produced are 3.5 to 4.5X what switch grass sourced fuel costs. In addition, they need farmland that is best suited to monoculture large-scale farming - better used for food grains and crops. Switch grass grows on almost any soil.

    For cane syrup sourced biofuels we ought to cut a deal with Cuba. Forget the ideological nonsense, Cuba is the most productive sugarcane growing nation on earth, per hectare. They'd do a deal in a heartbeat, if we lifted that utterly idiotic embargo.

    It's not like we don't have communist trading partners, after all - can you say China?