Predictions, anyone?

In the short term gasoline demand is relatively inelastic,price only modestly affects demand.Cars have about a 10 year life expectancy, so improvements in efficiency will only have a modest immediate effect, besides many commuters lack realistic options.On top of this demographic dispersion makes mass transit not economically viable.Sort of a perfect storm.But that's only to be expected if the only energy nonpolicy this country has ever had is MORE.The free market will (ultimately) solve all problems,that is if we're still around.It is not exactly that we are running out of hydrocarbons,we are running out of cheap hydrocarbons.Suppliers also have figured out that the stuff is bound to be much more valuable in the ground than in your tank,so why rush to extract it now.I hope prices will stabilize around $5.0 a gallon.If it goes much higher we'll have a world depression on our hands,which is clearly not in the interest of the oil producers,who have a substantial stake in the economies of the West.As long as we remain the captive addicts they will play pushers .
 
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Back to $3.00 by Christmas?

Well, would that that were going to happen. I don't think it is likely, however. Every bit of information and analysis I've seen, and everything that a lifetime of experience has taught me, say gasoline will be at or near $5.00/gallon, possibly much higher, by years end. I hope I'm wrong.
 
SimpleSimon said:
Look into the Cuban missile crisis a bit more closely, my friend.

It was NOT a one-sided affair. While President Kennedy's actions in confronting the emplacement of medium range ICBM missiles in Cuba was correct, what prompted that emplacement? Were you aware of the missile emplacements in northeastern Turkey by the US?

In any case, that was 45 years ago. The Soviet Union has been gone for more than a decade, now. We even do business with the Vietnamese regularly, now, and they killed over 50,000 of our people less time ago than that.]

My friend you posted a question and I did my best to give you a brief snapshot of the situation/history. I hold a Bachelors Degree in History from the University of Houston and I am familiar with the many details leading up to and after the Cuban Missle crisis. To answer your second questions Cuba has had the same Dictator for over 45 years that is not the case with the other countries you named in addition I suggest you read the Monroe Doctrine. In time we will trade with Cuba just not now.
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If the FED had not caused the dollar devaluation in the last year of over 50% the price of gasoline would be around 1/2 its price. The traders are betting the dollar is gonna fall further. Based on the price of crude vs the crack spread, gasoline should be at $5 right now. The debasement of the dollar by out "leaders" both Dems and Repubs(RINO"S) which is causing this run up in not only oil but all commodities.
And the messiah is really gonna fix this?
If you were a Oil trader in Dubi and saw the circus and clowns that are in power or running for power in Washington right now, would you want to be paid in dollars in 6 months to a year?
That is what the speculation going on is about. A trader is buying a contract 3 months to one year out. He may be a hedge fund manager or a crude supply person for a refinery. He has to make a bet on the price of his feedstock down the road. Does anyone here think the dollar is going to be worth more or less in 3 months or 1 year? If you had to buy supplies in a year and could lock the price in now why not? Today;s money will buy more than tomorrows.
In the US we are in dangerous waters. few people trust their government at any level. Local state or national. And out "leaders" both D and R set themselves up a elitist who know better how for us to live than we know ourselves.
End of rant.
 
houcoogster said:
My friend you posted a question and I did my best to give you a brief snapshot of the situation/history. I hold a Bachelors Degree in History from the University of Houston and I am familiar with the many details leading up to and after the Cuban Missle crisis. To answer your second questions Cuba has had the same Dictator for over 45 years that is not the case with the other countries you named in addition I suggest you read the Monroe Doctrine. In time we will trade with Cuba just not now.
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The Monroe Doctrine? Well, all I can say to that is, good luck with it. I assume you know what nation now holds the lease on the Panama Canal, right? Or what nation is providing the infrastructure emplacements, and operating personnel for the massive ramp-ups of lumber and paper production in the Chilean fjord region? How about the biggest new container transshipment facilty on the planet, in the Bahamas?

The Monroe doctrine is outmoded and ignored.

As for Cuba's 45 years under the same dictator, this countries biggest beef with Castro always has been that he threw out our carefully selected puppet dictator, and made it stick.

As for degrees, they don't really mean much. I have 5 of them, six if you count the associates in electronics I got because I got interested.
 
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The dollar has not declined by 50% that is rank nonsense,about 20% against a basket of foreign currencies over the last 18 months.This is bad enough and has been the consequence of persistent current account and balance of trade deficits (the ruinous war in Iraq being a major factor), and more recently the actions of the Fed,i.e. this year's reduction in interest rates,deemed necessary to prevent a collapse in the Financial Services Sector,which it was feared could have precipitated an overall economic collapse.
Chairman Bernanke was a student of the Great Depression of the Thirties (he wrote abook about it).He was in a very tough spot,what was the greater evil,inflation or a severe economic downturn and possible economic collapse.He may have overdone it,we'll never know.Interest rates will need to be raised to prevent further decline of the dollar.The Euro countries are now considering raising rates to combat inflation.But this sort of action can only serve to exacerbate the downturn,Call it Greenspan's malign legacy.He kept interest rates too low,for too long after 2000,resulting in the housing& borrowing binge.There are no easy,painless solutions.The best that can be hoped for is that Paul Volker will be appointed Treasury Secretary in the next Administration.
 
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Hummers and Land Rovers will be melted down into MB'S.
The local Cadillac dealership is slashing prices almost in half, and along with the free gas grill, they're giving you a freezer full of meat.(NOT A PREDICTION, ACTUAL) Still, sales are flat. Just look at their lots. Full of guzzling dogs. Nobody wants them. MELT THEM DOWN NOW !!!
 
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